Round 03

[Ethan]

So, apparently, the vote was 8-5-1. Many people were lying, and at least one person lied to me. I'm guessing it was Kelly because we had a good discussion about the vote, and then she disappeared and didn't talk to me anymore. So, I assume that she started making plans with others near the end of the conversation and then after. Although I guess it's possible that she was lying the whole time. And who knows, I guess that others could have been involved, too.

So, what I've been doing hasn't been working. I basically have avoided talking to the 8 people in control of the game, so I better change that if I want to stay this round. If I don't win the challenges, I'm gone. Since my position couldn't really be any worse, I have the freedom to strategize however I want. I should form a final two alliance with someone. Who seems like they would be honest and trustworthy? I know --- Russell!

[Ethan]

Ultimately, I think we DID pick the right target last round. We proved willing to vote for Shii Ann, so maybe it will garner the support of the majority group to take her out over the upcoming rounds.

I talked to Russell! It was a good conversation for both of us as we expressed willingness to swap sides and discuss different options in the future. Supposedly, I'm considered to be "along for the ride" with Silas leading the charge of my alliance with him and Marcus. I guess that this is a good thing. I don't really trust Russell, and I'm sure that he was concealing information from me...but I've got to try.

If my original alliance is wiped out and I have to fight for my life in the challenges and through strategy every round and somehow make it to the end...then, I might genuinely have a shot at winning the game. Obviously, I need to improve my social game and talk to more people. I'm not going to focus much on Shii Ann and Stephenie because these are the two people I'm banking on to be targets.

But Jerri, Russell, Sugar, Tracy, Ace, and Rocky are the people who I REALLY need to talk to and be friends with. I'm going to wait a little before talking to anyone else. I'll let Russell inform his friends about me, possibly, and see if anything else pops up or if anyone else approaches me. Because I am completely willing to shake things up and hope that it will work out.

[Ethan]

Ugh, I had written a few paragraphs to post in my confessional. But they just completely vanished. I have no idea what happened to them, so I’ll just start over.

- I am final 12!

- If I win the Robber Competition or an ally wins, I will likely be final 11!

- Still, despite these positives, I do not feel that I am a lock to even, at minimum, make jury. Brett, Marcus, Silas, and I are probably the closest four players in the game. We’re huge challenge threats. A few rounds from now, our numbers will be enough to control any vote. If any one of us is ever vulnerable in the upcoming rounds, then we’ll be gone. Of the four, I’ve bonded with Brett the least. Hopefully I can step that up so that he doesn’t feel on the outs. I feel like I’ve talked enough to Marcus and Silas to have their trust.

- So, what happened to Kelly? Well, she voted out Parvati. Apparently, she didn’t feel “in” with our group and was taken to the “other side” and persuaded to vote with them. I had a conversation with Kelly before the vote, but she is not even acknowledging that she talked to me. Is she lying, forgetful, or confusing me with Brett? I don’t know, but it appears that Silas no longer wants her in our group. So, since that is the case, she’s not getting a gem this round like originally planned. I feel like we maybe shouldn’t completely discard her and force her to be against us, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with that. There’s plenty of time for future development as long as she isn’t taken out this round.

- In the challenge, Team Silas (me, Marcus, and Silas) all worked together. Brett may have helped when I was sleeping or had classes. But, either way, Marcus and I decided that it would be best to give all of our points to Silas so that he could win. He was going to be online more than either of us, so it made the most sense to combine efforts. And it worked --- we won. Our effort was obviously noticed and will possibly lead to a more united effort against us in the upcoming rounds. Also, I gave away some help to Marcus and Silas about ways to generate more lists, ways to more efficiently guess answers, etc. These guys are going to be hard to beat long-term in the game, and I maybe should have kept any future advantages that I may have had to myself to give me a greater shot. But, at this point in the game, winning that challenge was crucial, so I think that I had to do what I could to give us the best shot at winning.

- My conversation with Russell didn’t appear to have any direct consequences. However, Russell did approach Silas about working with him. Rocky also approached Silas about working with him. In exchange for Rocky’s support in future challenges and the vote, Silas gave him a gem. In the Robber Competition, my four will probably work with Rocky and try to take away a gem from Sugar, giving it to Russell. If we can get Rocky and Russell to vote with us, then we will have a 6-6-1 tie, and Silas can decide who goes between those vulnerable. I think that Sugar and Tracy are the main names right now for the vote because they’re the most active, strongest players not working with us.

- I’ve had good conversations now with Rocky and Russell, but I still do not trust either one of them long-term. Maybe not even this round. Clearly, they’re doing what they need to do so that they’re not vulnerable. But it doesn’t make any sense to pledge loyalty to a united group of 4 and plan to stick with them. It may work short-term and possibly long-term if things work out properly, but it would still make the most sense to break us apart at the first opportunity.

So, I think that this is where things stand right now:

Brett/Ethan/Marcus/Silas + Rocky/Russell
Shii Ann/Stephenie
Ace/Jerri/Sugar/Tracy + Kelly

Hopefully my group is actually going to be able to control a vote for a change. It should work since so many people are going to be in danger and will need to stay in the solid numbers to save themselves. But I’m still not going to get my hopes up. I would LOVE to break up the Ace/Jerri/Sugar/Tracy group, and doing so would ultimately make it a successful round. Everyone with slashes in between their names (besides my group, haha) needs to be broken up ultimately. I imagine that those 4 will try to target Kelly, Shii Ann, Stephenie, or even Russell if he’s vulnerable at the vote.

[Ethan]

Ethan 4:22 pm
How are we handling the possibility of Russell joining us? Still low-key, as to not tell anyone else in case that would scare him out of joining us?
Silas 4:22 pm
yeah
but idk if i trust him
i talked to marcus about it
and he knows all of these people
and he said that out of rocky and russell he thinks one of them is with jerri/sugar/tracy/ace
Silas 4:23 pm
he thinks its russell

I find this development surprisingly interesting. So...Marcus knows all of these people, too. I wonder if he's from TheIdiotBox like most of this cast? But boo about Russell being involved with Ace/Jerri/Sugar/Tracy. We need a 6th vote. Shii Ann and/or Stephenie maybe? And, ugh, this theoretical number-crunching is hurting my head. Can we please get the Robber Competition over with so that we can have more solids to deal with?

[Ethan]

My perspective on my position in this game is constantly changing. This round, it has changed for the better. Honestly, I think that I can keep doing what I'm doing and potentially win. If nothing changes with the sides and if my side prevails and takes me to the end, I have a great shot at beating Silas, Marcus, Brett, or whoever I am with. Brett's hardly around. Silas is generating a lot of enemies with his moody outbursts and blunt, public accusations. Marcus is in a similar boat to me. People can say that we're floating with Silas, which is somewhat-true, but we're also completely aware of the position that Silas is in and have been having conversations with people that we didn't inform Silas about just to keep Silas from handling the information poorly. Against Marcus, I think that I have the advantage due to my ability to connect with others, communicate well, and create a favorable, winning image. That's if I make it to the finals with my current allies. If I make it to the finals WITHOUT my current allies, then I'm even more likely to win because it was an uphill battle. So, I'm keeping the hope.

The Robber Competition did not go as planned for me and my allies. But despite our failure, I honestly think that it was the most fun that I've ever had in an ORG competition. Looking over it, was there anything that we could have done differently to win? Possibly. Near the end on those gambles where the players in last (Kelly and Sugar) gambled everything, we could have gambled everything with them, knowing what they were going to do. But at the same time, when it was 3-2 with 3 of us versus 2 of them, all 3 of us risking it with the gambling person on their side could have been problematic in the sense that the non-gambling person on their side would have achieved a huge, unbeatable lead if we lost the gamble. It wasn't worth potentially throwing away our chances of winning with that gamble when we could have just played it safe and hope that they lost their gamble. Ultimately, we maybe could have made a few better moves, but I still feel really positive about the strategy that we employed. Our loss and Sugar's win ultimately just came down to Kelly and Sugar risking all of their money and winning in desperation moves while Marcus, Silas, and I were not able to risk it all and win like they did. I do wish that Marcus would have risked some more, though. He was eliminated with an undo left. :-\

During the challenge chat, Silas called out Sugar and her "side" and started attacking them. So, after Sugar won, I figured that Marcus or I would lose a gem because it made the most sense. I like Marcus, but I'm ultimately playing my own game. So, I IMed Sugar, tried to do some speedy bonding with her, and said that I'll possibly work with her later in the game. And that's true; I will possibly work with her because there's so much that could change. I'm not sure if my conversation led to her saving me, but I was ultimately saved. So I'm possibly locked into the final 11 depending on how the next few gems are distributed. That's exciting. I am concerned about no one having 1 gem at the end of next round and having a bunch of people vulnerable at the vote, potentially including myself. We'll have to see how this goes. Brett and Marcus could be in danger in the imminent future because they have 2 gems and are close to 1 gem, and everyone will want to get Silas down to 2 gems and then 1 gem to make him vulnerable since he's the "leader" of our group, and the other side seems to despise him. This possibly puts me in one of the safer positions in the game right now even if things do not go my way.

Rocky and Russell have agreed to vote out Jerri with us. Of the Ace-Jerri-Sugar-Tracy alliance that now likely includes Kelly, Jerri is the strongest player vulnerable. With me, Brett, Marcus, and Silas, that is 6 votes right there --- enough to quite possibly force a tie. Marcus said that Russell will try to get Ace to vote for Shii Ann. I think that Silas is going to try to get Shii Ann to vote for Jerri. So, for the first time this game, we have a shot at achieving a successful control of the vote. It might not happen and we may see Shii Ann or Russell go, but I'm hoping for Jerri. It would be a good move.

I have bonds with Brett (kinda, although he really isn't around a lot), Marcus, and Silas. This round, I added Rocky, Russell, and Sugar to my contacts. Hopefully my contacts keep expanding to the point where I'm talking to everyone every round by jury time.

[Ethan]

I have a bad feeling about this vote and Rocky and Russell joining me, Brett, Marcus, and Silas...but if they stick to their word, we have 6 solid votes. Assuming that there aren't 7 votes lined up for Russell, then Silas can at least break the tie and send Jerri home. If the target is Shii Ann like it is rumored, with Ace confirming that he was voting for Shii Ann, then Jerri goes home. Assuming that no one was lying.

But nervous still, I am. :-\