Round 04

[Ethan]

Well, the vote went exactly as planned with my 6 voting for Jerri and sending her home. Fortunately, the other 7 did not all vote for Russell. If the 6 of us stick together and win the competitions this round, then we can send Sugar home. I think it is fascinating that Tracy got Jerri's gem rather than Sugar. I may be reading too much into this, but could it be that Sugar feels like she stands a better chance at persuading us to not vote for her than Tracy? I don't know. I'd rather vote out Tracy than Sugar, but I'm still definitely going to vote out Sugar if we have the numbers and she's vulnerable this round.

My 6 is all working together in the challenge again, I believe. We need to set this up so that we win the Cop Competition, 3 people have 3 gems, and 3 people have 2 gems and are protected. Therefore, someone with 2 gems needs to win competition, give a gem to Russell, promote someone with 2 gems to 3 gems, and protect himself and the other 2 people remaining with 2 gems. If we can keep Rocky and Russell on our side, that would be huge. We'll assure that none of our 6 is eliminated at the vote. I certainly do not trust Rocky and Russell long-term, though, and as soon as we eliminate the other threats and don't need them...we need to get rid of them. It would be wise for them to not stick with us long, or they'll seal their own fates if we keep succeeding at the challenges.

And it will be 6-4-2.
Brett/Ethan/Marcus/Silas/Rocky/Russell the 6.
Ace/Kelly/Sugar/Tracy the 4.
Shii Ann/Stephenie the 2.

If not for Ace, it would be an even 6-6 male-female division, as Shii Ann and Stephenie seem more likely to side with Ace, Kelly, Sugar, and Tracy.

We have a great start on the challenge, but I'm going to individually search for every name we haven't found and try to run through some nicknames for later today to make sure we've covered all bases. Even last night, all 6 of us were on and we seemed to work together well.

[Ethan]

Honestly, I think we guessed too high for the tiebreaker in that Cop Challenge. Hopefully I'm wrong and one of us can win!

[Ethan]

So, I won both competitions this round. Winning both of them was not ideal, but it’s better than Ace/Kelly/Sugar/Tracy or Shii Ann/Stephenie winning them. There was a high degree of teamwork involved in the Cop Competition, and I just got lucky by guessing the closest number. I felt like we should have guessed lower as a whole, but oh well, the end result was fine. My group was slightly disorganized during the Robber Competition. I talked a little to Marcus, who did the most work, and I feel like I kind of stole a win that he deserved, but I also realized that when I entered a forum, I needed to post immediately because it takes time to direct others to a certain spot, and it was possible that someone else could have beat us if I would have waited for him to post. Marcus probably did the most work, but I won.

Now, this gets frustrating. I’ve talked to Brett, Marcus, Russell, and Silas. They all want Sugar out. That’s 5/12 votes right there. Assuming that Kelly and Sugar do not vote for each other and assuming that Shii Ann and Stephenie do not vote for each other, we could be looking at a 5-5-2 or 5-5-1-1 tie. I could break the tie, but I’d prefer a 6th vote for Sugar to assure that she goes. Rocky is the 6th member of my group and the obvious choice. Unfortunately, Rocky does not want to vote for Sugar because she assisted him earlier in the game.

So I talked to Shii Ann, who said that she wanted Sugar gone, but she said she’d only join me if I gave her a gem. I have no intention of giving her a gem, but hopefully she chooses to vote Sugar in order to save herself. With Shii Ann and maybe Stephenie, we’d be able to send Sugar home even without Rocky’s support. But would we lose Rocky long-term if we went against his wishes and after it’s revealed that I choose to give a gem to Brett rather than Rocky or Russell? I don’t know… I’m also thinking about what to do next round if we win the Cop Competition. Should my core four start to get more than 3 gems, or do we promote Rocky and Russell up to 3? I still feel like as soon as we don’t need those two any more, we need to get rid of them because they’re larger threats than anyone else. I have no mercy for threats. Let Ace, Kelly, Shii Ann, and Stephenie make it far if it makes my game easier. Anyone who can win a challenge needs to be eliminated.

I know what I’m going to do this round. Steal from Sugar, give to Brett. It’s unfortunate because I liked Sugar and felt like we maybe could have been partners down the road, but that’s the way that this game goes. She didn’t steal my gem, and now I’m stealing hers and likely sending her home… She basically needs to go home now that I’m stealing her gem, or I could be in danger of execution as early as next round. So I'm trying to approach this round intelligently to assure that it happens, or I'll possibly put myself in danger stupidly.

[Ethan]

My job as a player is essentially to make this game as boring as possible. And if my alliance can keep winning challenges and eliminate the largest threats to us, then hopefully that will be the case. I still haven't heard anything from Rocky. I'll have to make my decision soon and justify it to him, hopefully keeping him with us.

Sugar's going to scramble, surely, but hopefully we can prevent her scrambling from changing anything. I really think we'll be fine because we have our Core Four who isn't going to flop. Russell is hopefully honest. Shii Ann and Stephenie should join us if they're smart. So, we should have easy numbers, and I don't really see what angles Sugar could approach that would cause us to break. I know what I would try in her position, but it wouldn't work. So if she saves herself, I'll be incredibly impressed.

[Ethan]

I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever about this vote. We have 5 votes assuming Russell isn't lying. That may not be enough. It isn't the end of the world if this fails, but it means that we risk Sugar being around for a whole lot longer. And after what we almost did this round, then I'm sure that there won't be any mercy for us over the next few rounds.

Hopefully this works! I could have handled Shii Ann a whole lot better, but I think she's smart enough to place the key vote necessary for Sugar to leave. After getting Shii irritated with me in one of our conversations, she basically needs to leave pre-jury. I want 6 of my 9 in the final 9, but I'm not sure about the other 3. It's a shame that Sugar couldn't be there because she would have quite possibly voted for me in the finals if this wouldn't have happened.

I'm hearing that Shii Ann and Sugar may be combining to get Kelly out now. Should be interesting. Hopefully their vote is split.